Paul's Props and Touchdowns: 2025 Week 9 | Fantasy Points
Paul Kelly analyzes Fantasy Points projections to identify significant discrepancies and make informed player prop and touchdown bets. His historical accuracy is reflected in his record:
- 2021 Player Props Record: 75-47 (61.5%)
- 2022 Player Props Record: 85-68 (55.6%)
- 2023 Player Props Record: 79-59 (57.2%)
- 2024 Player Props Record: 70-50 (58.3%)
- 2025 Player Props Record: 32-18 (64.0%, +10.21 units)
Each week, Paul provides recommendations on discrepancy-based player prop bets and "anytime" touchdown scorer bets. After a losing week in Week 8, he aims to recover in Week 9.
Methodology
Years ago, Paul began manually comparing John Hansen’s player projections to sportsbook offerings, focusing on the largest differences to find betting opportunities. Recent advancements include an automated prop finder tool that streamlines this comparison process, allowing him to select the best odds across different books.
“Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies to identify betting opportunities.”
Author's summary: Paul Kelly uses a discrepancy-based approach, aided by a proprietary tool, to identify advantageous NFL betting opportunities, improving his chances of success each week.