Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in life expectancy at birth (LE) in Western Europe in 2020, with recovery only seen by 2023. Despite being heavily affected by the pandemic, Spain maintained the highest life expectancy in the European Union. This study aims to analyze the changes in Spain's life expectancy from 2019 to 2023 by age group and cause of death, and to compare these changes with those from 2010 to 2019, before the pandemic.
Methods
Life expectancy and mortality data by age and main cause of death were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for the years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was applied to measure age-specific contributions to life expectancy changes. These age-specific contributions were then assigned proportionally to each major cause of death.
Results
- Age groups above 20 years experienced negative impacts on life expectancy in 2020 but mostly showed positive contributions in subsequent years.
- Interestingly, the age groups most affected in 2020 contributed positively to life expectancy changes over the full 2019-2023 period.
- Age groups under 45 years continue to have negative life expectancy contributions.
- Infectious diseases were the primary factor behind the sharp life expectancy decline in 2020, reducing it by 1.33 years overall.
- The impact was greater among men (−1.43 years) compared to women (−1.16 years).
"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."
Author's Summary
Life expectancy in Spain sharply dropped in 2020 due to infectious diseases but mostly recovered by 2023, with varying effects across age groups and genders.